When a headline says an African country will host a 200 MW AI data centre, the useful question is how much of that exists as electricity, hardware and customers today, and the answer is usually close to none of it. The Africa Data Centres Association (ADCA) and Rising Advisory counted about 360 MW of active IT load across the continent in their Data Centres in Africa 2026 report, with 238 MW under construction and a further 656 MW only planned. A single announcement in 2026 can equal the whole of the first number.
Key takeaways
- Announced, energised and contracted capacity are three different quantities. Most 2026 headlines describe the first.
- ADCA's 2026 count puts roughly 29% of the identified pipeline in service, about 19% under construction and about 52% still planned (our arithmetic on reported figures).
- Power, more than fibre or land, is now named as the binding constraint on new sites, and outside South Africa built halls are reportedly about one-third occupied.
- A "MW" can mean IT load, critical power load or grid connection. Ask which before comparing two numbers.
- Treat the stage a project has reached, not its size, as the headline fact.
Three numbers hiding in one word
Megawatts are quoted loosely. IT load is the electricity the servers themselves can draw. Critical power load is a term some operators use for the protected supply feeding the halls, and definitions vary by company. Grid connection is what the utility has agreed to supply, which can sit well above what is switched on at opening.
Two figures from South Africa show the problem. Teraco's own release for its JB7 hall in Johannesburg gives "40 megawatts (MW) of critical power load", lifting its Isando campus to "up to 110MW" and the company to 228 MW. Baker McKenzie's June 2026 analysis puts "data centre IT load" for the largest South African operator at "near 190 MW" as of the first quarter of 2026. Those are different measures, so you cannot subtract one from the other to learn how much JB7 is worth.
The second split is time. Capacity can be announced, built, energised (power on, cooled, ready for racks) and contracted (a tenant has signed). The gap between the last two matters most to a buyer, because built capacity without tenants usually has the lowest price and the most room to negotiate. ADCA's report, as covered by the Tunisian outlet Kapitalis, says outside South Africa average occupancy is "proches d'un tiers" of available capacity. That is a survey-level finding and it hides large variation by country and by site.
A stage ladder, applied to 2026
Here is one way to place any announcement. The rungs are mine; the placements use only what each source said.
| Rung | What exists | 2026 example, as reported | |---|---|---| | 1. Intent | A minister's target or a memorandum | Egypt plans five to seven "mega data centres" within five years, per a weekly digest from Africa AI News (secondary, no per-site MW) | | 2. Design | A developer is briefed, feasibility and permits are being prepared | Morocco: FiveNines leads early development of a 20 MW AI facility near Casablanca inside a 180 MW "AI factory" under an April 2026 MoU. Capex, customer and construction start undisclosed (Connecting Africa, 13 Oct) | | 3. Signed venture | Partners, a capacity schedule and a capital figure | Africa Data Centers Egypt: 20 MW first, up to 200 MW later; about $200 million in phase one, $1 billion in total. Arab Finance, citing a bourse filing, says phase one runs "over the first three years" | | 4. Financed | Lenders have committed | iXAfrica, Nairobi: a multi-tranche package from Rand Merchant Bank, amount undisclosed, for a further 20 MW on top of 2.25 MW in service (Citizen Digital, Sept 2025) | | 5. Under construction with a date | Steel, a build schedule, a funded loan | Teraco JB7: described in Teraco's release as scheduled for completion in 2026 (we found no later status update), funded by a R8 billion syndicated loan, per Teraco's release | | 6. Energised | Doors open, power on | Digital Realty's NBO2 in Nairobi: about 6 MW, reported as opened in September 2026 (W.Media gives 6.2 MW; the company announcement and other outlets give 6.4 MW) | | 7. Contracted | Named or disclosed tenants | Almost never disclosed. None of the sources read for this article names a customer for any project above |
Now the Tunisian headline. SoleCrypt announced a 40 MW AI campus at Bizerte on 22 October 2026. The reported facts: phase one is 7 MW, built around Nvidia HGX Rubin NVL8 systems with up to 1,728 GPUs; operations are targeted for 2028; a separate 60 MW solar and storage project at Tozeur is tied to it; the site is 3.6 km by routed fibre from the Medusa subsea cable; financing and tenants are not disclosed. By the ladder, 7 MW sits at rung 2 or 3 and the other 33 MW at rung 1. That is a normal start for a project, and it is not a capacity you can plan a workload around in 2027.
Nigeria's shared AI infrastructure needs a different test, because it is a public compute service rather than a building. The government's AI Scaling Hub, announced in June 2026 with Galaxy Backbone as host and Gates Foundation support, is described in coverage as "shared national computing infrastructure". The article gives no GPU count, and its language is mostly forward-looking, so whether any compute is in service is unclear from what was published.
What the power data say
Africa's share of installed capacity sits at about 0.6% of global data centre capacity, according to ADCA's report as covered by Kapitalis and a second outlet, Techeconomy. The IEA reports that Africa had the lowest data centre electricity use per person in 2024, under 1 kWh, and expects just under 2 kWh by 2030, with South Africa the outlier above 25 kWh.
The same ADCA coverage says electricity, not fibre, is now the main limit on new sites. This is the number to test any large announcement against. Baker McKenzie estimates a conventional data centre at 10 to 25 MW and new AI facilities at 100 MW or more each. A 200 MW campus is therefore a request on a national grid, not a hall.
Reliability data for firms are older, but the shape is consistent. An Energy for Growth Hub memo built on World Bank Enterprise Surveys (published 2019, survey years not stated there) found 78% of African firms experienced outages and outages averaging over 50 hours a month, and generator ownership ranging from 18.4% of firms in South Africa to 70.7% in Nigeria. Treat these as direction, not current measurement.
Operators have started publishing how they handle it. Rack Centre's Lagos LGS2 site lists a 12 MW long-term capacity, moves from diesel to gas-fired captive power and says solar is "designed to cover 5.5% of long-term 12MW capacity, currently offsetting 43% of Phase 1 operational load". Read both numbers together: 12 MW is the plan, and the 43% is measured against a smaller Phase 1.
Our reading: the binding variable for 2027 and 2028 supply is how much firm power each project has contracted, and most announcements do not state it. The strongest counterargument is that fast projects can bring their own generation; Rack Centre's captive gas is an example. That works for a 12 MW site more readily than for 200 MW.
Buyer guidance
Put one question to every provider: what is energised today, in MW of IT load, and what is the contracted tenant share of it?
- Ask for the rung in writing. Which of the seven rungs is the capacity you are being offered, and what is the date at which it moves up?
- Ask what the MW is. IT load, critical power or grid connection. Get it in the contract.
- Ask about power. Is there a signed supply agreement, a captive plant, or a plan to apply? What is the generator and fuel autonomy, and has the failover been tested?
- Check dates that have arrived. If a release said "completion in 2026", ask for the commissioning certificate or a site visit rather than a restated promise.
- Use the oversupply. Where a market is reported at a third occupied, capacity is not scarce. Negotiate on price and exit terms.
- For data-residency work, decide whether a rung 5 site with a firm date is acceptable, or whether you need rung 6 evidence.
- Operators: state the stage and the MW definition in every announcement. Buyers will ask in the first call.
To compare providers in one market, the cloud computing category and the country pages list companies by location and profile, and find a partner helps build a shortlist to put these questions to. A profile can confirm who the company is and where it operates. It cannot tell you what is energised on a given site; that comes from the provider.
Frequently asked questions
Is Africa's 0.6% share of global data centre capacity going to rise? ADCA's report, as covered by Kapitalis, expects the share to stay roughly unchanged. Africa's own total could triple to about 1.2 GW of IT load by 2030 only if every planned project is completed.
Does a memorandum of understanding mean construction will happen? No. An MoU signals intent between parties. In Morocco's case, the 180 MW programme rests on an MoU with government agencies signed in April 2026, and the 20 MW first site is at design and permit preparation.
Which source is best for checking a data centre claim? The operator's own filing or release, a stock-exchange filing where the company is listed, and then regulators or utilities. Trade press is useful for dates but often repeats the company's number.
Why do two reports give different MW for the same site? Often they measure different things (IT load, critical load, design capacity), or they describe different phases. iXAfrica's Nairobi campus is quoted as 22.5 MW "design capacity" with 2.25 MW in service, so the figures describe different points in the build.
Sources
- W.Media, Egyptian data center venture targets US$1 billion investment for 200 MW buildout, 8 Sept 2026.
- Arab Finance, Vodafone, Elsewedy Electric, Cassava target $1B investment in Egypt data center project, 8 Sept 2026.
- Africa AI News, Egypt plans 5-7 mega data centres, 23 Oct 2026.
- Connecting Africa, FiveNines joins Nexus in Morocco AI data center project, 13 Oct 2026.
- W.Media, SoleCrypt unveils 40 MW AI campus in Bizerte, Tunisia, 22 Oct 2026.
- Tech Africa News, Nigeria launches AI Scaling Hub, 29 June 2026.
- Kapitalis, Data centers: la part mondiale de l'Afrique bloquée à 0,6%, 25 Feb 2026 (on the ADCA and Rising Advisory report released 24 Feb 2026).
- Zawya (AfricaBusiness.com), Africa data centre market 2026, 2026.
- Teraco, JB7 release on Zawya, undated on page.
- Citizen Digital, iXAfrica to expand Nairobi data centre capacity by 20MW, 10 Sept 2025.
- W.Media, Digital Realty expands Kenyan campus with 6.2 MW data center, 8 Sept 2026.
- Rack Centre, The 0.6% Reality Check, undated, appears to be spring 2026.
- Baker McKenzie, South Africa: The Megawatt and the Token, 11 June 2026.
- International Energy Agency, Energy and AI: energy demand from AI, 2024 data.
- Techeconomy, Africa data centre capacity at 0.6% (17 Feb 2026 coverage of the ADCA report).
- Energy for Growth Hub, Costs of unreliable electricity to African firms, 6 Aug 2019.
General information for evaluating public announcements; it is not investment, legal or procurement advice. Figures come from company statements and trade press unless stated.